From the Co-Founders of The Retail Owners Institute.Tips | Tactics | Insights on the Business of Retailing.
The forecasts for Holiday Sales are coming out. And they are very upbeat! Sales increases of 4.5 percent are forecast, versus last year's 3.6 percent. Meanwhile, holiday e-commerce sales are projected to grow 18-21%.
"With disposable personal income climbing and consumer confidence staying elevated across the U.S., the holiday shopping season could bring healthier sales for retailers," stated Rod Sides, the head of Deloitte's Retail Practice.
"The good news is retail is thriving, with a proliferation of new, niche retailers."
Well then. Quite a change of pace from the doom-and-gloom, hunker-down, retail-apocalypse drumbeat, isn't it?
And what an opportunity for those retailers who are quick to adjust! This may be the first opportunity in years to actually be a merchant.
Good Fall/Holiday season to take some calculated risks.
As you look at the next three months, we would encourage you to consider modestly broadening your selections, or simply buying a little deeper than you first planned.
Be careful, but be a merchant. Now here is our bold caveat. The forecasts for the end of this year come with no certainty whatsoever about consumer confidence and/or retail viability in the new year. To be a pro in this environment of calculated exuberance, set inventory levels now for December 31.
Enforce the use of them throughout this season. Hitting those pre-determined ending inventory targets is critical for being in the best shape possible for 2018.
"It's not how high you jump; it's how well you land!"
You've seen them, right? All the stories about how strong this year's Holiday sales are expected to be.
Meanwhile, the department stores – Kohl's, J.C.Penney, Macy's – keep reporting sales declines. And malls, seeing less foot traffic and fewer shoppers, are scrambling. So, where will those robust retail sales come from?
You’ve been seeing these reports, too? Word is that banks are increasingly willing to lend, especially to “small businesses.” There are several influences at play here.
One is the optimism in the business community that the Trump Administration and Republican Congress will actually reduce regulations, loosen compliance demands, and otherwise open the spigot more.
And Community Banks are optimistic for relief from some of the more onerous paperwork requirements that were written with the Big Banks in mind.
Meanwhile, the rise of alternative lenders – the online marketplaces – brought a more streamlined way to handle the paperwork of banks. And they paved the way for using Big Data to make safe, defensible lending solutions.
We have a mental image of a wide-open plain with hundreds of prairie dogs, cautiously poking their heads above ground. Looking around, they slowly realize they can actually venture out into the world once again. And venture forth they do. One by one at first, then more and more. Enthusiastically. Energetically. Excitedly bounding about, encouraging others to share their sense of adventure and fun. And that’s what we imagine is next for independent retailers. Here’s why.
Instead, it pertains to the bond markets. It is the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term government bonds. When long-term interest rates fall below short-term interest rates, the yield curve becomes inverted.
Here is why that matters: According to research by the San Francisco Fed, "Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve."
• Those who make things happen
• Those who watch things happen
• Those who say, "Umm, what happened?"
Increasingly, it looks to us as if the 2018 Holiday Season is going to be one where most retailers will be saying, "Umm, what happened?!?"
You’ve heard about the robust sales numbers on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, right? Now ICSC – the International Council of Shopping Centers – has sponsored a research survey about Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday to delve into them a bit more.
And what they found sure surprised us. For example, who were the biggest fans of physical retail and shopping centers? Millennials. Yep, those "digital natives", folks ages 18 – 36 chose to make their purchases from physical retailers (or through websites operated by physical retailers) rather than shopping pure online retailers such as Amazon.
Pat Johnson and Dick Outcalt, The Co-Founders of The Retail Owners Institute®, have been called "The Zen masters of retail finance!" Since 1999, they have been assembling their proprietary content into a unique self-help website. The Retail Owners Institute is an unmatched resource that assists retailers worldwide with basic financial training, assistance and easy-to-use tools. Their engaging and empowering how-to resources about the financial levers in retailing are informative, fun(!), and retailer-friendly. Their promise: "Everyone will 'get it'!" Pat and Dick are recognized experts in strategic retailing. Working only as a team – Outcalt & Johnson: Retail Strategists, LLC – they have been consulting, publishing, and speaking professionally throughout North America since 1990. They focus exclusively on retail, or wherever retail is involved. They work with CEOs, CFOs, boards and owners of retail operations, as well as manufacturers or wholesalers expanding into retail. And they also are Retail Turnaround Experts.
Since 1999, empowering retailers and store owners to "Turn on your financial headlights!"