Every day, there are all too many headlines of things outside our control. 

• The war in Ukraine. 
• The global energy crisis.Inflation. 
• Rising interest rates. 
• The falling stock market. 
• Wildfires. 
• Droughts. 
• Supply chain disruptions. 
• Rising costs. 
• Crime rates. 
• Social injustices. 
• The latest coronavirus variant.
• And...And...And...

The drumbeat of news about these events is relentless. And wearing. 

While retailers are notably resiliant and optimistic, there IS a limit to how much uncertainty one can continue to take.

Then we discovered that there is a name for all this: VUCA.

👀 New Respect for Brick-n-Mortar Retailers

Retail IS detail. And some of those pesky details are increasingly cropping up to torment online sellers. 

For example, there's the matter of managing returns. As Chris Jarvis wrote in DMM/ShoppingCenters.com*:

• "We return roughly 30% of all online purchases compared to only 10% from brick-and-mortar."
• "In 2021 retail returns jumped to an average of 16.6% versus 10.6% a year ago."
• "Research suggests that a single online return can cost two-thirds the original price to handle when we include labor, transportation, and warehousing costs." 

Meanwhile, the pure-play online retailers are confronting the ever-demanding customer expectations. 

As the second quarter of the year begins, many of us are experiencing what that fellow in the cartoon is feeling. We are not where we expected to be (and maybe not even where we thought we were!) 

Ahh yes, yet another flexibility test. The first quarter of 2022 was full of some major events, nationally and internationally, that disrupted many plans.

As you contemplate where you are now, compared to where you thought you were, and especially, where you intended to be, don't despair! Even more important, just like you do with the GPS system in your car, disregard"returning to the prescribed route."

ICYMI. You know, that's the shorthand for In Case You Missed It. And in fact, we had missed this.

"Consumer confidence rises for first time this year." 

As reported by Chain Store Age*, "The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 107.2 in March, up from 105.7 in February. It was the first time the metric has increased in three months."

Wow! Is that ever a stray ray of sunshine! We always look to Consumer Confidence levels as a leading indicator for retailers.

By now, you have your year-end financials for 2021. Remember, it always comes with a Balance Sheet!

Whether sales are up, down, or sideways, the financial strength – and staying power – of every business is shown on its Balance Sheet. And revealed by its Balance Sheet ratios.
 

You've no doubt seen the headlines. "Retail sales slumped in December." 

Sounds pretty grim, doesn't it? Did all those foreboding warnings of supply chain issues, inventory shortages, etcetera actually come true?

• Keep in mind that the folks trumpeting those slumping sales results are comparing each month's retail sales to the previous month. Sure enough, on that basis it is true that retail sales in December were almost 2% less than they were in November.
   
• However, if you examine the same numbers the way that retailers do– that is, comparing to the same month the prior year – we see a very different story.

Keeping Perspective

Is there a more difficult everyday challenge?

As owners of businesses, we've got all of the issues of the times right on our plates. Think about it:

• Every family has ups and downs. In fact, every person does.
• And it seems that all of our constituencies – family, friends, neighbors, customers, employees, landlords, lenders, vendors – look to us for answers, for leadership. "Well, after all, you are the owner!"
• Meanwhile, the covid turbulence has magnified the fact that there's really no how-to manual for dealing with a wily once-in-a-century pandemic.

Is there a more difficult every day challenge than maintaining perspective? We don't think so.

The constant challenge for retailers is to anticipate what their customers really want.  And this year, there seem to be plenty of choices available.

• A "frictionless" checkout procedure? 
• One hour delivery? 
• Buy Now, Pay Later?
• "This particular item in this particular color and size. Right now!?"
• Etcetera

It is all part of the on-going challenge of retail; the art and craft of being a merchant. 

Then there are the customers who are reacting to the constant drumbeat of news about supply chain issues, merchandise shortages, and looming price increases by starting their shopping early. 

Adding to this stampede, some major chains were launching their Black Friday specials before Halloween!