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Patricia M. Johnson & Richard F. Outcalt
Retail Strategists and Retail Turnaround Experts
Co-Founders, The Retail Owners Institute® • Business Strata:G®
The Retail Brew newsletter posted their "roundup of the highest profile holiday forecasts." Their summation? "Experts predict cautious consumers will slow their roll in 2025." *
They cited forecasts from Adobe Analytics, the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI), Bain & Company, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Deloitte. They explain how each of these sources gathers their data, what each source concludes - their Data Points – and their Insights.
Retail Brew's conclusion: "A rough consensus is forming among experts that the 2025 holiday season could be a letdown compared to last year."
As you are the in-house expert on your business, that's undoubtedly not news to you. But it may confirm and quantify that dark cloud hovering on the horizon.
Take advantage of the lead time you have – that is, this last week in October - and identify "What are my options for November and December?"
Overcome the uncertainty of this holiday season, and, applying your good judgment, begin 2026 from a greater position of strength. Whether you choose The ROI’s PROFITS Forecaster or 3-in-1 Calculator, become a Member of The ROI and you can look ahead not just to November and December, but to the next 12 months. Empowering!
No need to guess! In real time, on the spot, you can see and compare the impacts on profits and cash flow of your "What if's...?" Just tweak the inputs, then see the outcomes. Immediately!
Hmm. Don't like how that would turn out? Try some “What if…?” changes. All on your own. Remember your goal: "What are my options?"
Some may not work at all.
Others may be workable, but not make much difference financially.
And some that have previously been dismissed out of hand may actually "pencil out."
Now, armed with those insights, apply your good judgment!
As a Member of The ROI, you can chart the path forward through the holiday season and into 2026 with confidence – and peace of mind.
---
*"Experts predict cautious consumers will slow their roll in 2025." Alex Vocolo, Retail Brew, October 17, 2025.
Schedule a free Zoom session with the Co-Founders.
Especially during times of major changes economically, retailers are well advised to:
focus on your customers
control the "controllables"
and above all else, keep perspective!
Ahh, yes, retailers. That third one - "keep perspective" - can seem daunting. What's the secret to achieving that?
In today's lingo, it would be "metrics". That is, measure and monitor your tactics and results.
For an insightful overview of a 4-step process that enables you to know whether your business is trending up, down, or sideways, take advantage of this week's Webinar of the Week, led by Pat Johnson and Dick Outcalt, Co-Founders of The Retail Owners Institute®.
You also can download your own master copy of The ROI's Trend Tracker form.
Sell My Store, Please! • Banks4Retailers
RetailOwner.com
Avoid mistakes • Seize opportunities • Look ahead now
As you have recognized, our commentary is usually inspired by current events. And that means that our intentions of what we discuss can change any day.
For instance, we were expecting to talk about 3 or 4 examples of folks "seizing the moment" that we had seen earlier this week. Great reminder for retailers.
Then, just this morning, we saw an article about a nationwide Gallup study of what constitutes a "quality job - such as providing fair pay, having predictable schedules, and offering opportunities to grow and advance."
"Traditional labor statistics track how many people are employed and what they earn—but they don't capture the aspects of work that drive employee and business success."
The Gallup American Job Quality Study* surveyed more than 18,000 workers across industries, geographies, and job types.
"This study shows what truly defines a good job and why job quality, not just job quantity, is essential to a thriving workforce. Workers in quality jobs aren't just more satisfied, they're also healthier, more engaged, and more productive."
We believe that independent retailers in particular are well positioned to offer quality jobs that attract quality employees.
Which brings us back to "seize the moment." As reported by Alex Halvorsen in the Seattle Times, there is a retailer in Seattle that sells licensed sports apparel "and the not-so-occasional cheeky T-shirt, with a knack for the quick turnaround."
According to the store owner, "We watch every game and scan social media, looking for those big moments. Once something like that happens, there are probably hundreds of texts flying around to coordinate getting it out to our customers."
A recent example: "We had it designed and ready for sale in 54 minutes. The company then gets to work shipping those orders, trying its best to keep everything local."
"While we sell licensed gear, what we're most proud of are the T-shirts and sweatshirts with inside jokes and memories that core fans embrace."
That's more than "just a knack" for a quick turnaround. (The pros make it look easy, don’t they?)
They have a motivated and involved staff
Their staff has a voice in what the company sells and what customers they serve.
They take great pride in their ability to seize the moment.
And, they are keeping retailing fun! Which may be the most important quality of all. ---
*Landmark Gallup Study Shows Less Than Half of U.S. Workers Have A Quality Job. PR Newswire, October 16, 2025
📌 Members of The ROI can find out more about these concepts. See the article "How To Manage Your Most Valuable Asset" and/or the webinar "When Your Employees Want To Know "WHY?"
Maybe it's your POS provider. Or your payment processor. Or an online wholesaler. Or....
There can be lots of special offers to enable you to buy more merchandise now. And many of these come with very high costs that can pile up over time.
And beware: some allow the provider of these cash advances to repay themselves first, by taking a portion of your sales revenue before it even reaches your bank account. Yikes!
In our opinion, that is no way to deal with today’s economic uncertainties. Instead, when you need financing, conventional lenders may be the best choice.
Before you sign on to any of those tempting offers, spend some time on one of our free microsites, Banks4Retailers.com. It’s a curated selection of in-depth tools and resources from The ROI focused on financing your business.
In the Get Ready section, see resources to Learn Savvy Borrowing, Save Time, and Gain Perspective.
Then, in the "Find Lenders" section, you can see and compare an array of financing resources: Community Bank Locator; Mission-Driven Lenders; SBA Loan Programs; Government Loans, Grants. (And no, The ROI does not receive any fees or compensation for alerting you to these resources!)
Check it out today. Save yourself time and hassle. Get useful information. Discover choices.
And all for free from The ROI.
The Retail Owners Institute® has been empowering owners since 1999 to "Turn on their financial headlights!" Our tools and resources are trusted by thousands of independent owners to help grow financially stronger and resilient businesses.