Loading
  • Get The ROI Newsletter

    It's your USER GUIDE to The ROI

From The Co-Founders

Patricia M. Johnson & Richard F. Outcalt

Retail Strategists and Retail Turnaround Experts

Co-Founders, The Retail Owners Institute®Business Strata:G®

Thanksgiving Is Late This Year

Hooray!?

"Christmas will be here before you know it."

 

Well, actually, Christmas will be here the same time it always is: December 25.

 

However, what does change are the cues for the shoppers.

 

That is, Thanksgiving falls as late as it can this year, on November 28. That means, for those keeping score at home and for the breathless business pundits, there are only 26 shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. This is six days shorter than a year ago, and the shortest since 2019.

 

That's why some retailers, especially those that are publicly traded, are making mighty efforts to lengthen the shopping season.

 

But, is there actual value in trying to prompt shoppers to start their Christmas shopping before they have even handed out Halloween candy? Yes, but...

 

Two thoughts:

  • Given how much preliminary "shopping" (that is, browsing, gathering/searching for ideas) is now done online, rather than in stores, the impact of having Thanksgiving occur very late in November may not carry the same significance as it once did. People can go online anytime (and you don’t have to schedule additional staff so soon!)

  • And, remember this: every year there is a slump, a slowdown, between the Monday after Thanksgiving and December 10. Only then, with just two weeks left, the shopper attention and intensity picks up.

 

So, what's a retailer to do?

  • Be certain that you have the best, most appropriate web presence your operation deserves. It should do justice to your story, your merchandise, your customers. Do it, asap.

  • Offer as many conveniences and time savers for your customers as they prefer (younger shoppers may have different preferences than others.) You don't need an app to offer click and collect, or buy online, pickup in store.

  • Be strategic about your scheduling. There will be busy days/times in your stores. Anticipate when those are most likely, and be sure to have your best sales people available then.

 

Meanwhile, our contrarian thought:

There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now, from upcoming elections, political turmoil, international conflicts, natural disasters, etcetera. More so than most years, shoppers are very likely to wait until the last moment to decide how much they will spend on Christmas this year.

 

That is, even if Thanksgiving had fallen on the earliest possible date, the shoppers this year - especially the price-conscious shoppers - won't show their hands until after December 10.

 

The takeaway for retailers: Stay calm.

  • Between now and the late Thanksgiving, because the Big Guys will be establishing the Holiday aura, be competitive and reassuring. Those early shoppers are wanting to be prepared.

  • Be ready for the Black Friday hoopla.

  • Then stay strong through those "slump days" until December 10. Indeed, relish that the slump is actually less time to endure this year!

 

And remember: there always is something to celebrate!

That Haunting Halloween Question

As Halloween arrives, here's a really spooky thought: Will you have enough cash to get you through the next 3 or 4 months?

 

How to answer that? With a quick cash flow calculation. No retailer should ever be without it!

 

A Cash Flow plan has just 3 parts:

  1. Cash coming in

  2. Cash going out

  3. The difference

     

Here's how to know in a matter of minutes – free of charge! – whether or not you will have enough cash to get you through the Holiday season.

 

Go to our online "Cash Flow Gadget." It's available to everyone 24/7 at The ROI.

 

Just use your best guesstimates (for your eyes only) to fill it in for the next four months. It's like shining a light on that monster in the closet!

 

One of two things will then happen.

  • You'll discover that you will be "cash flow positive"! Sweet! You can sleep at night!

  • Or - gulp! - you will see that you will have a cash shortfall. But, better to know in advance, isn't it?!

 

In either event, you still have time to make some adjustments.

 

Ahh, Perspective!

This quick exercise can be particularly useful over the November to February time frame. The drop-off in sales volume from December to January is nothing new for many retailers. The value is the perspective you can gain from seeing the likely numbers in advance, giving you time to develop your game plan for dealing with it.

 

Whenever you are haunted by cash flow questions, depend on The ROI. Nowhere else can retailers so easily look ahead, and "Turn on your financial headlights!"

Links to view Monthly Retail Sales results vs Last Year

The Owner’s Dilemma

Fund The Business? Or My Family?

All too often, given the seasonality of retail businesses, there simply is not enough cash to fund the business, and take care of your personal obligations.

 

The Owner must choose:

  • Do I take money out for my household and family? (To remodel the kitchen, or pay for college, or....)

  • Or, do I reinvest that money into the business? (Upgrade computer systems, remodel the store, or....)

     

  • And most important, when could I do any of those things?

 

Pat Johnson and Dick Outcalt, the Co-Founders of The Retail Owners Institute®, have identified all these pressures that bear down on owners. This is what is known as an Owner-Only Issue.

 

Even better, they have captured it in a revealing explanation - and even a picture - of the interdependent financial connections confronting Owners.

An Owner's "Interdependent Financial Statements"

Quite the balancing act that owners must maintain. Knowing how all the pieces  interact and fit together makes a huge difference.

 

All owners and aspiring owners should be sure to take advantage of this invaluable perspective.

 

Knowledge IS Power!

 

RetailOwner.com

Avoid mistakes • Seize opportunities • Look ahead now




From The Co-Founders

Patricia M. Johnson & Richard F. Outcalt

Retail Strategists and Retail Turnaround Experts

Co-Founders, The Retail Owners Institute®Business Strata:G®

“There are a bazillion possible Starbucks orders – and it’s killing the company!”

That is the provocative title of an interesting New York Times Guest Essay* by Bill Saporito, editor-at-large at Inc.

  • "Starbucks says there are more than 170,000 possible drink combinations available, but outside estimates have put the number at more than 300 billion. And,” he laments, “the person in front of you always seems to be ordering 100 million of them.”

  • "Companies have always had to deal with choice and customization versus the complexity that comes with it. But we know that too much choice can be paralyzing," Saporito writes.

 

Saporito’s message is very relevant as the Holiday Season approach. To reduce the paralyzing effects of too much choice, now is the time to finalize your merchandising strategies.

 

And here’s the key: focus on the solution that each item delivers.

 

Remember, many of your Holiday Season shoppers are not your regular customers, but people buying gifts for your type of customers. These Holiday shoppers may need a lot of help navigating your store.

 

Look, it’s now October. This is your merchandising opportunity. And now is the time to start getting ready.

 

In-store, use your graphics, signage and displays to make it easier for shoppers to recognize appealing solutions to those hard-to-buy-for people on their lists. Carry over these themes to your advertising, social media posts, website, etc. Start now to talk this up with your staff.

  • Attract shoppers to "Gifts for Foodies" or "Best For Family Travel" or "Kid-Approved" or "Self-Care."

  • Display your merchandise as Good - Better - Best options (especially useful for bundles)

  • Or, separate merchandise as best for Newbies, or Enthusiasts, or Thoughtful Upgrades, etc.

  • Group merchandise by most likely recipients: Gifts For Her, Gifts For Him, Gifts For Them, etc.

  • Consider the circumstances: "Stocking Stuffers"; "White Elephant Gift Exchanges"; "Day Care Teachers"; "Dog Walkers."

 

Here’s another reason to start now to develop your merchandising strategies  As you think about these merchandising themes, you may spot some gaps in your assortments. Now’s a good time to know that, isn’t it?! You may need to make some special buys quickly.

 

Again, the purpose is to protect your shoppers from being overwhelmed by choices. Instead, you are showcasing your thoughtfully-selected gift-giving solutions.

 

Your goal: enable each person who buys from you to have confidence that they have made a fine choice. After all, especially in these times, reassurance can be a priceless gift.

 

–––

* Guest Essay: Starbucks and the Curse of the Highly-Complicated Coffee Order. The New York Times, August 25, 2024.

Some Good News From the Business Press

“The mood of American consumers continues to brighten,” noted Chain Store Age* on September 27.

 

In our view, consumer confidence is a key “leading indicator” for retailers. These improvements in consumer confidence are particularly well-timed as we head toward the Holiday season.

  • “Consumer sentiment extended its early-month climb, rising 3.2% in September to 70.1, according to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. It’s the highest level in five months.”

  • “The expectations index is now 13% above a year ago and reflects greater optimism across a broad swath of the population,” said Joanne Hsu, surveys of consumers director. “While sentiment remains below its historical average in part due to frustration over high prices, consumers are fully aware that inflation has continued to slow.”

 

In a similar vein, Ruth Simon of The Wall Street Journal reported “Rate Cut Jolts Entrepreneurs to Spend Again.”**

  • “A tire seller will open more stores. A maker of gun safes plans to boost advertising. A candle maker is looking at taking out a $20,000 loan to expand for the holidays.”

  • “Some small-business owners expect lower rates to boost consumer confidence and, with it, demand.”

  • “Thirty-two percent of entrepreneurs surveyed in September said they expected overall economic conditions in the U.S. to be better during the next 12 months, the highest share since August, 2021.”

 

The most positive outlook in three years? That IS promising, isn’t it?

–––

* "Consumer sentiment rises for third consecutive month", Chain Store Age News Briefs, September 27, 2024.

** “Fed’s Rate Cut Is Jolting Small Business to Spend Again.” Ruth Simon, The Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2024.

Free Webinar of the Week

Retail IS Detail!

Here Are 25 That Matter The Most To Shoppers

Do you know the 25 "details" that every shopper is using to evaluate your stores?

 

Or, how about this: Do you know how to "see what they see?"

 

In this week's insightful and immediately useful TOPICAL TUESDAYS Webinar of the Week, Pat Johnson and Dick Outcalt, the Co-Founders of The Retail Owners Institute®, will cover all of this, and more.

  • First, they identify these 25 "details", and how to evaluate each one of them.

  • Then, they show how you – and your staff – can see your stores how the shoppers do. (Yes, once you do that, there will be surprises!)

 

Plus, see The ROI's innovative, automated and free STORE RATER tool. Usable from your laptop, tablet or even a smartphone, it makes the Store Rating process fast, engaging - and fun!

  • It lets you rate each “detail” on a scale of 1 to 5; then it tallies them by category.

  • At a glance, see each store’s strengths, and, easily identify areas to improve.

  • Plus, it offers a fine training opportunity for your key staff people!

 

Today's customers are very quick to share their opinions about your stores, thanks to the megaphones and bullhorns of social media.

 

Your stores are talking; better know what they are saying!

RetailOwner.com

Avoid mistakes • Seize opportunities • Look ahead now




Since 1999, empowering retailers and store owners to "Turn on your financial headlights!"