PERSPECTIVES

As we approach the final week before Christmas, the last shopping weekend; amidst… 

• All the volatility, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, inflation, etc.

• Concerns about merchandise availability

• Mixed messages about the shoppers and their intentions, whether Millennials, Gen X, Boomers  

• The bifurcated economy - Wall Street versus Main Street 

• The "K-shaped recovery" - those doing well doing better; those doing not so well doing, well, not so well

It's hard to have a ready response to "How are your stores doing this year?"

Amidst all of that, we believe the appropriate answer to "How are you doing?" always will be based on your definition of "What constitutes success?" 

Think you’ve never documented that? Think again.  

The fanfare surrounding Artificial Intelligence can be reminiscent of breathless advertisements for do-everything kitchen gadgets: "But wait! There's more!!"

Amidst all that, we were intrigued to read about Scott Tannen*, the CEO and co-founder of the luxury bedding and home brand Boll & Branch. The company launched in 2014 as an online-only direct-to-consumer brand. 

• "When we first started the business, I don't think we ever envisioned having any physical stores whatsoever," said Tannen. Then, in 2018, they opened their first permanent store. "We saw this massive performance change in the business, because customers could touch and feel the products," Tannen discovered. 

So Boll & Branch added more stores, and recently has turbo-charged their brick-and-mortar strategy. In just the past year, they have grown from 8 stores to 15. 

But here’s what captivated us: how they decide on store locations.

They use Zillow.

The Retail Brew newsletter posted their "roundup of the highest profile holiday forecasts." Their summation? "Experts predict cautious consumers will slow their roll in 2025." *

• They cited forecasts from Adobe Analytics, the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI), Bain & Company, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Deloitte. They explain how each of these sources gathers their data, what each source concludes - their Data Points – and their Insights. 

Retail Brew's conclusion: "A rough consensus is forming among experts that the 2025 holiday season could be a letdown compared to last year."

As you are the in-house expert on your business, that's undoubtedly not news to you. But it may confirm and quantify that dark cloud hovering on the horizon.

As you have recognized, our commentary is usually inspired by current events. And that means that our intentions of what we discuss can change any day.  

For instance, we were expecting to talk about 3 or 4 examples of folks "seizing the moment" that we had seen earlier this week. Great reminder for retailers.

Then, just this morning, we saw an article about a nationwide Gallup study of what constitutes a "quality job - such as providing fair pay, having predictable schedules, and offering opportunities to grow and advance."

• "Traditional labor statistics track how many people are employed and what they earn—but they don't capture the aspects of work that drive employee and business success." 

• The Gallup American Job Quality Study* surveyed more than 18,000 workers across industries, geographies, and job types.

"Retailers are sitting on a pile of goods. Now the question is, will the U.S. holiday shopper bite?" reported Jennifer Williams in the Wall Street Journal. 

• "The risk heading into the crucial holiday shopping season is that inflation-wary shoppers won't spend as much or will buy fewer items because prices are higher," she noted.

Similarly, Michael Brandt of Inovium expects "weakening growth in discretionary retail (electronics, fashion, home furnishings.)"

• "Consumers may pull back on big-ticket items, delay refresh cycles, or trade down in brands."

Shoppers Are Not Ghosting This. 

And Neither Should You!

When you’re running a store, your days are already packed with ringing sales, juggling vendors, calming staff, and keeping the lights on. 

That’s why so many independent retailers have been slow to jump on past waves of technology — e-commerce platforms, fancy POS systems, or social media dashboards. The tools were costly, fiddly, and frankly, not built for stores like yours.

But here comes AI. Might this wave be different?

• It’s accessible. No IT department needed; a curious owner can try it on their laptop tonight.

• It’s fast. From drafting an email to analyzing last month’s numbers, AI can take the drudgery out of tasks that bog you down.

• It’s (relatively) cheap. Many AI tools cost less per month than a case of shopping bags.

Think about the prominent characteristics of today's in-store shopping experience:

• More "self-service" for the customers (that is, less staff on the floor.)

• Reduced in-store merchandise selection; "Just check our website."

• Limited in-store knowledgeable staff.

• Presumption that the shopper will do product research on their own.

• And of course, self check-out by the customer.

Hmm. Are these providing more "convenience" for shoppers? Improving their shopping experience? Or – just shifting the work to them?!