PERSPECTIVES

We think this may be a very different 4th of July Holiday weekend. 

It will not be just about red, white & blue window displays, or flag waving, or fireworks displays. Instead, there is a new mood, a new attitude that is emerging. 

First, we believe that all shoppers are reeling from being swamped by some major and concurrent attention-grabbing events and trends affecting all of us. Seemingly with no end in sight.

Consider these front-page headlines and the accompanying chart (see above) from the June 6 Wall Street Journal* – "Surplus Inventory Piles Up", "Stores Are Stuck with the Wrong Items." 

Look at it carefully, and think of your operation in comparison. How do your numbers compare? Are you as shocked as we are?

How did this happen? 

Partly as responses to the unprecedented impacts of the pandemic. 

Have you seen what the Silicon Valley venture capital firms are saying to the  startup firms they've invested in? 

While it may be tempting to smile and nod approvingly at this dose of business reality, there's a ripple effect to be aware of.

As reported in the May 31 edition of the Wall Street Journal*, "Their advice includes cutting costs, preserving cash, and jettisoning hopes that hedge funds or other investors will swoop in with big checks."  

The playing field has shifted dramatically under the feet of retailers. 

Merchandise orders placed months ago are now proving to be "too much stuff that consumers no longer want so much of,"  as was reported rather colloquially just 3 days ago.  All this was summed up this way: "Retailers with slower inventory turns might find current conditions especially difficult to navigate." *

Now, look at the chart at the top of the page. Without being dramatic, it may be a lifesaver for your business this year. 

photo: Greg Gilbert/Seattle Times

Recently we read of a "bookshop on wheels" launched by a college English instructor. While certainly not the first retail variation on a food truck, this one has gained praise for its authenticity. 

"What’s most surprising when you walk into Blue Kettle Books for the first time is how cozy and, well, bookstore-ish the tiny space feels."*

Every day, there are all too many headlines of things outside our control. 

• The war in Ukraine. 
• The global energy crisis.Inflation. 
• Rising interest rates. 
• The falling stock market. 
• Wildfires. 
• Droughts. 
• Supply chain disruptions. 
• Rising costs. 
• Crime rates. 
• Social injustices. 
• The latest coronavirus variant.
• And...And...And...

The drumbeat of news about these events is relentless. And wearing. 

While retailers are notably resiliant and optimistic, there IS a limit to how much uncertainty one can continue to take.

Then we discovered that there is a name for all this: VUCA.

👀 New Respect for Brick-n-Mortar Retailers

Retail IS detail. And some of those pesky details are increasingly cropping up to torment online sellers. 

For example, there's the matter of managing returns. As Chris Jarvis wrote in DMM/ShoppingCenters.com*:

• "We return roughly 30% of all online purchases compared to only 10% from brick-and-mortar."
• "In 2021 retail returns jumped to an average of 16.6% versus 10.6% a year ago."
• "Research suggests that a single online return can cost two-thirds the original price to handle when we include labor, transportation, and warehousing costs." 

Meanwhile, the pure-play online retailers are confronting the ever-demanding customer expectations. 

Just this morning we saw yet another article speculating about the staying power of online shopping, in this instance, grocery shopping. 

• "Right now, the direction is … unclear," admitted the reporter.* "I have been scouring data on online grocery shopping in the U.S., and I will be humble and say that I don’t have a clear picture."
• "My wishy-washy analysis is that Americans haven’t fallen head over heels for buying bananas over the internet, but we aren’t rejecting it, either."

Of course, it's not just media pundits who are looking for answers to this question about online versus in-store shopping. Retailers are living with this issue, and they have to make decisions.