PERSPECTIVES

Consider this retailer, whose sales over the last 4 weeks are down 12% compared to last year.

Some retailers in this situation essentially freak out. 

But others know to keep asking questions. Before they decide what to do next to fix lagging sales, they want to know "Why?" 

So, here is one way to get to the numbers behind the numbers; to begin to know the "why" of your sales trends.

All it takes is tapping into the data that's already in your POS system, and putting together a little summary tally sheet. Here's one example.

It's back-to-school season! 

We were struck by these comments from folks for whom "back-to-school" is more than a season. Look what a state superintendent of public instruction* had to say about the upcoming school year. 

• "The sheer burnout of the last two years caught up with everybody."
   
•  "But out of that came a genuine assessment of what matters most."

Lots of retailers can identify with those comments, don't you agree?

Or, these observations about the disruptions and uncertainties of the pandemic:

As the final third of the year approaches, there's a "new era" afoot. There is optimism in the air. 

Optimism? Really? 

Yes! And it could catch a lot of folks by surprise. 
 

Consider these "early warning signs" of approaching good news:

• Those surveys of "consumer attitudes" indicate that folks do reflect the news headlines regarding the economy – that is, respondents are pessimistic about "the economy." But when asked about their own financial situation, the responses were very positive; people feel good about their personal financial situation.

One of the real killers of a retail business can be debt. But, how much is too much?

Debt can be quite stealthy as it grows. 

• Seemingly small expense increases add up in the aggregate – maintenance costs, security, advertising, utilities, payroll, e-commerce charges, etc. 
• Vendors may be eager to offer terms, but that too is more debt. Whether or not you pay interest on it, you still are obligated to pay. And vendors would rather have an accounts receivable from you – it's an asset for them – and a debt for you.

Especially in these times of increasing interest rates, creeping expansion of debt can quickly snowball into a much larger problem.

From the Benchmark pages on The ROI site, we have selected four retail verticals whose Debt-to-Worth ratio shows a frightening situation. The technical term we would use is "spooky, real spooky."

(click on each chart to see all key ratios for that vertical)

Embracing Uncertainty: The Essence of Retailing

A frequent recommendation for how to navigate the current economic uncertainty is to be more diligent about controlling expenses, and focus on profit. (You'll see; we challenge that below.)

Hmm. Concentrating on profits is easier said than done in today's environment, with cost increases proliferating under the umbrella of inflation.

The basic definition of retailing is "selling to the ultimate consumer." 

As you know, HOW that is done, and in what location or format, continues to change and evolve. 

So, we were intrigued by this recent post on the Shopify Retail Blog: The Future of Physical Retail in a Digital-First World.*

• The "retail digital-first world", of course, is either the "pure play e-commerce retailers," those who sell only online, or the "brands" (what we used to call manufacturers) who have embraced the "DTC model," selling direct-to-consumer. 
   
• And as you know, Shopify is one of the largest platforms for e-commerce businesses. Definitely a leader of the retail digital-first world.

To us, the blog post was essentially a wide-ranging journey of discovery(and perhaps even some new-found respect for those "physical retailers".)

We think this may be a very different 4th of July Holiday weekend. 

It will not be just about red, white & blue window displays, or flag waving, or fireworks displays. Instead, there is a new mood, a new attitude that is emerging. 

First, we believe that all shoppers are reeling from being swamped by some major and concurrent attention-grabbing events and trends affecting all of us. Seemingly with no end in sight.