PERSPECTIVES

You've gotten through the Holiday season, likely enjoyed some vacation time, and perhaps even have your own financial statements in hand. 

For many retailers, 2021 proved to be a very profitable year. Congratulations!

In fact, go here to check out the pre-tax profit trends for the past two years for the median performers in 50+ retail segments. To borrow a phrase,  everybody (almost) is above average!

You've no doubt seen the headlines. "Retail sales slumped in December." 

Sounds pretty grim, doesn't it? Did all those foreboding warnings of supply chain issues, inventory shortages, etcetera actually come true?

• Keep in mind that the folks trumpeting those slumping sales results are comparing each month's retail sales to the previous month. Sure enough, on that basis it is true that retail sales in December were almost 2% less than they were in November.
   
• However, if you examine the same numbers the way that retailers do– that is, comparing to the same month the prior year – we see a very different story.

The definition of a good coach is “That person who makes you do the things you don’t want to do, to become the person you want to be.”

Given that, we would suggest that the pandemic proved to be a great coach for many retailers. So much so, "Coach P" really deserves being recognized as the Coach of the Year!

Think about it. The pandemic forced retailers to do things they had long evaded or delayed (remember “technology laggards?”) 

We are entering an exceptionally exciting time for retailing. 

Nationwide, the U.S. is experiencing an entrepreneurial surge not seen since the tech boom of the 1990s, said Kenan Fikri, research director for the Economic Innovation Group in Washington, D.C. 

According to an analysis of Census data by EIG, "Through September, Americans have filed a record 1.4 million applications to start new businesses – the most through the third quarter of any year on record."*

Experts suggest it’s being fueled by rising household wealth and shifting life priorities, after millions of Americans were tossed from their jobs during the pandemic. 

The constant challenge for retailers is to anticipate what their customers really want.  And this year, there seem to be plenty of choices available.

• A "frictionless" checkout procedure? 
• One hour delivery? 
• Buy Now, Pay Later?
• "This particular item in this particular color and size. Right now!?"
• Etcetera

It is all part of the on-going challenge of retail; the art and craft of being a merchant. 

Then there are the customers who are reacting to the constant drumbeat of news about supply chain issues, merchandise shortages, and looming price increases by starting their shopping early. 

Adding to this stampede, some major chains were launching their Black Friday specials before Halloween!

The season of ghosts and goblins and things that go bump in the night is upon us. While Halloween comes and goes, there may be another very unhappy monster haunting retailers this Holiday season. And it is spooky!

What is this monster? It is an unintended consequence of the good faith efforts of many retailers to provide "excellent customer service." Customer expectations have been raised to heights that may not be fulfilled this year. A grim reality is setting in. 

Consider this: Will this Holiday Season happen... 

• In traditional RETAIL Time? 
• Or always-on INTERNET Time? 
• Or, the grinding PANDEMIC Time? 
• Or, some combination of all of it?

What a 90 days it will be! 

Remember July and early August, when there was much optimism? 

• Consumers were excitedly resuming in-store shopping and dining. 
• Social gatherings were increasing. 
• Pent up demand was high. 
• And shoppers were eager to make this year extra special to compensate for last year. 

Throughout the pandemics, many independent retailers successfully shed their "technology laggards" label, as they pivoted to embrace an array of digital tools.

Yet going forward, it is well to keep in mind what really matters to the customers. And it may not be more technology.

A recent survey* of more than 2,000 customers provides some interesting insights as to who shops where, why, when and how. It especially highlighted the differences between "large stores" and "smaller stores" (or as we view them, "specialty stores.")

• “The data revealed that 75 percent of consumers shopping at a larger store knew what they wanted before crossing the premises." 
• Those who shop in larger retailers say 'We just want to get in and get out.'”

Hmm. This suggests to us that shoppers essentially are treating large stores the same way they treat the internet: