PERSPECTIVES

In most years, this is the week that is typically a bit of a lull. The first wave of shoppers – Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Shop Local Saturday, Cyber Monday – has crested; the final wave doesn't begin in earnest until this coming weekend.

But this year IS different. Shoppers began shopping in earnest much earlier. And they use the internet to do their browsing, and then have an array of choices for receiving their purchases, from delivery to curbside pickup to in-store pickup.

So, what better time than this to revisit your returns policy?!
 

We are entering an exceptionally exciting time for retailing. 

Nationwide, the U.S. is experiencing an entrepreneurial surge not seen since the tech boom of the 1990s, said Kenan Fikri, research director for the Economic Innovation Group in Washington, D.C. 

According to an analysis of Census data by EIG, "Through September, Americans have filed a record 1.4 million applications to start new businesses – the most through the third quarter of any year on record."*

Experts suggest it’s being fueled by rising household wealth and shifting life priorities, after millions of Americans were tossed from their jobs during the pandemic. 

The constant challenge for retailers is to anticipate what their customers really want.  And this year, there seem to be plenty of choices available.

• A "frictionless" checkout procedure? 
• One hour delivery? 
• Buy Now, Pay Later?
• "This particular item in this particular color and size. Right now!?"
• Etcetera

It is all part of the on-going challenge of retail; the art and craft of being a merchant. 

Then there are the customers who are reacting to the constant drumbeat of news about supply chain issues, merchandise shortages, and looming price increases by starting their shopping early. 

Adding to this stampede, some major chains were launching their Black Friday specials before Halloween!

For retailers there are two very strong trends happening now through the Holiday Season. And they are remarkably divergent. 

• One that is getting a lot of publicity is how Target, WalMart, etc. are promoting their “Black Friday “ specials four weeks before Thanksgiving. 
  
  Sounds desperate to us, but it is a sign of the times. 

It has begun; the 4th quarter of the year. But sadly, Covid-19, the Delta variant, and now the Alpha variant will have huge influence. 

Meanwhile, there is no shortage of opinions and predictions about the economy, whether from Wall Street, the Fed, Capitol Hill, or your buying group or retail trade association. 

Amidst all this, we were intrigued by a report that could be of far more value to retailers: results of a monthly survey of consumer concerns.* After all, for retailers, the shopper matters much more than the pundits on the business pages.

Just when it seems we can get to the "New Normal" or the "Next Normal," another disruption comes along. 

"There still is so much uncertainty" is the lament, often accompanied by a sigh of weariness. Or resignation. Trying to plan for the Holiday season, or looking ahead to 2022, can seem especially daunting right now.

Occasionally, all of our businesses need to hit "pause;" this is one of those times. 

Recognize that thanks to the pandemics, most everything about running your business has changed. Your merchandise mix; your customers; your staff; your competitors; your suppliers; your landlord; your technology; etcetera. Everything!

• With all those changes, how could going forward have much resemblance to however you used to do business?
• And as is always true in retail, the name of the game is adjusting!

Consider this: Will this Holiday Season happen... 

• In traditional RETAIL Time? 
• Or always-on INTERNET Time? 
• Or, the grinding PANDEMIC Time? 
• Or, some combination of all of it?

What a 90 days it will be! 

Remember July and early August, when there was much optimism? 

• Consumers were excitedly resuming in-store shopping and dining. 
• Social gatherings were increasing. 
• Pent up demand was high. 
• And shoppers were eager to make this year extra special to compensate for last year. 

For retailers, the Fog of Uncertainty that began in April 2020 around the pandemics keeps coming back. Just when it appeared that we were ready to "get back to life" if not "back to normal," the Delta variant has surged. 

This has created more uncertainty. How willing are your customers to actually go out and shop? Even more important (to you): how willing are YOUR customers to shop with YOU?

So, here's an idea: Why not ask them? Really. Send them a short questionnaire.*