PERSPECTIVES

You've seen all the headlines. Worldwide inflation. Dire warnings of a coming recession. Big time discounts at retailers due to boatloads of inventory. Amazon doubling down on their Prime Day(s) sales. Shoppers shopping early in anticipation of rising prices. 

Shaping up to be yet another "unprecedented" Holiday season for retailers, isn't it?

And a wonderful opportunity for all merchants!

How best to start? Set the boundaries.

• First, specify how much inventory, in total, you want as of December 31. 
• How much by department?
• Category?

Next, establish clear routines for monitoring inventory levels.

Retailers are notable for their optimism and their resilience.

And the last couple of years have provided ample opportunities to showcase their ability to bounce back.

But now, it's 2022. Time for those customers to pick up the slack. And here's an idea for helping them get started. Without costing a penny in advertising!

Print up some "bag stuffers" (you know, conspicuous notes) inviting them to come back in November.

"Consumer confidence rises to five month high."

That headline from Chain Store Age* brings smiles to retailers.

Consumer confidence is a key indicator of retail sales, and this increasing confidence as we head into the holiday season is very welcome indeed. 

• “Concerns about inflation dissipated further in September—prompted largely by declining prices at the gas pump—and are now at their lowest level since the start of the year,” according to Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.
   
• "Looking ahead, the improvement in confidence may bode well for consumer spending in the final months of 2022," added Franco.

But of course, there is no one-size-fits-all upside here. 

More Spending on Necessities

We recently learned of a restaurant with a kids menu which is quite unusual.

Of course, having a kids menu is not unique. But here's what IS unusual about this one.

When kids are asked "What would you like to eat?", often their answers can range from "I don't know" to "I don't care." 

But at this restaurant, here is what each all-too-familiar answer brings to the table:

In the free enterprise system, owners are free to succeed. And free to fail. 

That's why The Retail Owners Institute has defined the #1 responsibility of the Owner as the survival of the business. 

But then, the owner must define "Why?" Why are we doing this, anyway? Why are we working so hard for this business to survive and thrive?

• There are many good answers. To be the biggest? The fastest growing? A way of life? Something to pass on to the next generation? To create wealth? To support a cause? 
   
• It all depends on the owner, and what she or he decides. Then, that answer must be communicated: to staff, customers, family, the community, competitors, everyone.  

That brings us to an event that captured a great deal of attention in the business world last week. 

It's back-to-school season! 

We were struck by these comments from folks for whom "back-to-school" is more than a season. Look what a state superintendent of public instruction* had to say about the upcoming school year. 

• "The sheer burnout of the last two years caught up with everybody."
   
•  "But out of that came a genuine assessment of what matters most."

Lots of retailers can identify with those comments, don't you agree?

Or, these observations about the disruptions and uncertainties of the pandemic:

As the final third of the year approaches, there's a "new era" afoot. There is optimism in the air. 

Optimism? Really? 

Yes! And it could catch a lot of folks by surprise. 
 

Consider these "early warning signs" of approaching good news:

• Those surveys of "consumer attitudes" indicate that folks do reflect the news headlines regarding the economy – that is, respondents are pessimistic about "the economy." But when asked about their own financial situation, the responses were very positive; people feel good about their personal financial situation.

You've no doubt seen the headlines and the commentary:

• "Retailers Stumble Adjusting to More Selective Shoppers" *
   
• "Consumers Uneven Spending Fuels Caution Among Retailers" **

Consumer spending is up, but not on what was expected, especially those publicly-traded chains that must report quarterly. 

• "As people watched the prices of food and gas rise, their spending became more selective, leaving retailers with shelves of inventory they couldn’t get rid of." * 
   
• "Although some consumers are cutting spending on goods, it is being accompanied by increased spending on services," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. **