PERSPECTIVES

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• Thanksgiving Is "Late" This Year

   

  "Christmas will be here before you know it."

  Well, actually, Christmas will be here the same time it always is: December 25. 

  However, what does change are the cues for the shoppers. 

  That is, Thanksgiving falls as late as it can this year, on November 28. That means, for those keeping score at home and for the breathless business pundits, there are only 26 shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. This is six days shorter than a year ago, and the shortest since 2019.

  That's why some retailers, especially those that are publicly traded, are making mighty efforts to lengthen the shopping season. 

  But, is there actual value in trying to prompt shoppers to start their Christmas shopping before they have even handed out Halloween candy? Yes, but...

• Wait. Shoppers Expecting Even More?

  It has begun; the 4th quarter of the year. But sadly, Covid-19, the Delta variant, and now the Alpha variant will have huge influence. 
  
  Meanwhile, there is no shortage of opinions and predictions about the economy, whether from Wall Street, the Fed, Capitol Hill, or your buying group or retail trade association. 
  
  Amidst all this, we were intrigued by a report that could be of far more value to retailers: results of a monthly survey of consumer concerns.* After all, for retailers, the shopper matters much more than the pundits on the business pages.

• 

  Not Just the Turkeys This Year

  Each year at this time, our thoughts turn to turkeys. 
  
  No, not the ones that will adorn many dining tables on Thursday. But the "turkeys" lurking amidst your inventory. You know; non-selling, distressed, slow-moving, old, unappealing leftovers among your merchandise. 
  
  But this year, frankly, our worries extend beyond the turkeys. 
  
  Here are some of the reasons why.

  • All the gloom and doom talk about the economy and recession continues, affecting consumer attitudes.
  
  
  • With few pandemic or supply chain issues, many retailers have more-than-ample inventory this year, unlike the previous two years.
  
  
  • Inflation is impossible to ignore, especially for those who drive cars or shop for groceries.
  
   

  As a result, in this environment, consumers are scaling back their discretionary purchases, and/or choosing to spend on travel, dining out, or other experiences versus retail merchandise. 
  
  Not an upbeat prospect for retailers, is it?

• Dealing with Your Landlord? This Is Better Than Begging!

  Let's assume your stores have been closed for weeks now. 

  We recognize how conscientious you are. So, after paying what you can to your employees (and yourself), the next most-worrisome dilemma is your rent.

  • How best to get some immediate relief from each month's lease payment?
  • And you wonder, what would be the best way to negotiate with your landlord?

  As you likely have discovered, a common choice for many landlords is to offer to defer your payments. But that means taking on more debt, as those payments are only being postponed to a later point in time. 
  
  You need a better solution than that.

• 

  Wait! Who knew this good news?

  ICYMI. You know, that's the shorthand for In Case You Missed It. And in fact, we had missed this.

  "Consumer confidence rises for first time this year." 

  As reported by Chain Store Age*, "The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 107.2 in March, up from 105.7 in February. It was the first time the metric has increased in three months."
  
  Wow! Is that ever a stray ray of sunshine! We always look to Consumer Confidence levels as a leading indicator for retailers.

• 

  This Parade Changed Course!

  There’s an awareness, an “Oh wow!” sweeping around the commercial world. It’s stated in a variety of ways, but it’s the same surprise. 

  • “Working off-site seems to appeal a lot to both employees and employers. Could be another sea change!!!!”

  Indeed, some respected urban thinkers are suggesting that 50% of the traditional commuters may want to and will be encouraged to continue to work remotely.  50%?! Yikes. That’s quite a redirection of the parade!