PERSPECTIVES

From The Co-Founders

rss

Tips, Tactics & Strategic Insights and Commentary
from The ROI Co-Founders, Pat Johnson and Dick Outcalt
Outcalt & Johnson: Retail Strategists LLC; Retail Turnaround Experts


ROI Co-Founders
ROI Co-Founders's Article
COVID-19 thumbs/SearchROI.jpg

You've no doubt seen the headlines and the commentary:

  • "Retailers Stumble Adjusting to More Selective Shoppers" *
     
  • "Consumers Uneven Spending Fuels Caution Among Retailers" **

Consumer spending is up, but not on what was expected, especially those publicly-traded chains that must report quarterly. 

  • "As people watched the prices of food and gas rise, their spending became more selective, leaving retailers with shelves of inventory they couldn’t get rid of." 
     
  • "Although some consumers are cutting spending on goods, it is being accompanied by increased spending on services," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. **

COVID-19 thumbs/checklist2.png

It doesn't make any difference if you're selling tires, turbans or tuxedoes. 

Poor prior planning produces pitifully poor profits. 
(You can take that to the bank!)

We came across an article on this checklist theme for the rapidly approaching fall/Holiday season. 

COVID-19 thumbs/HelpWanted.png

Artful Idea for Retention Bonus

When asked "How many people work for you these days?", one owner we know responded, "Oh, about half of them."

Hopefully you don't share that same lament.

But, most retailers know all too well the challenges and high costs of competing for talented employees.

And, keeping staff – versus dealing with constant turnover – is even more important. Especially to your bottom line. 

So we were intrigued by this report in CNN Travel*:
  • Germany's Ruby Hotels, which has 16 properties across Europe, is offering new recruits up to €500 ($511) to get a new tattoo, piercing or haircut once they reach six months of employment.

COVID-19 thumbs/Timer.png

One of the real killers of a retail business can be debt. But, how much is too much?

Debt can be quite stealthy as it grows. 

  • Seemingly small expense increases add up in the aggregate – maintenance costs, security, advertising, utilities, payroll, e-commerce charges, etc. 
  • Vendors may be eager to offer terms, but that too is more debt. Whether or not you pay interest on it, you still are obligated to pay. And vendors would rather have an accounts receivable from you – it's an asset for them – and a debt for you.

Especially in these times of increasing interest rates, creeping expansion of debt can quickly snowball into a much larger problem.

From the Benchmark pages on The ROI site, we have selected four retail verticals whose Debt-to-Worth ratio shows a frightening situation. The technical term we would use is "spooky, real spooky."

(click on each chart to see all key ratios for that vertical)

Pharmacies & Drug StoresFlorists

Office Supplies & Statiionery StoresPet & Pet Supplies Stores

COVID-19 thumbs/Qmarx.jpg

Embracing Uncertainty: The Essence of Retailing

"The mantra of 2022 should really be: No one knows anything," opined a business reporter.* "It’s stunning how little we understand about how the pandemic has changed our lives and our country. It’s not clear whether the U.S. economy is hot or not, or if big cities will be forever scarred." 
  • "The future of our online shopping habits is another unknown. This is not just a nerdy debate. Our collective buying behavior sways trillion-dollar companies, millions of retail jobs and the health of the U.S. economy." 

  • "The uncertainty about the direction of online shopping is one of the biggest questions facing the tech industry and financial markets right now."
Well yes, of course. The tech industry and the financial markets do prefer predictability. The uncertainties of retailing always have bedeviled them. And now, with Amazon's recent retrenching, backing off some expansion, their crystal balls have turned cloudy. 
 

COVID-19 thumbs/Headlines.png

A frequent recommendation for how to navigate the current economic uncertainty is to be more diligent about controlling expenses, and focus on profit. (You'll see; we challenge that below.)

Hmm. Concentrating on profits is easier said than done in today's environment, with cost increases proliferating under the umbrella of inflation.

COVID-19 thumbs/CmptrProj.png

"How are sales?" is essentially the international greeting between retailers. 

And because of the seasonality of retail sales, most retailers will respond by explaining whether sales this month are up or down versus the same month last year, not just the previous month. 

All this is well and fine in a normal year. But, since 2020, retailers have not been experiencing anything close to normal. And boy, does that show up in the 6-month retail sales trend charts that The ROI posts each month.
  • In sector after sector, December, January & February sales versus the prior year are markedly different than the March-April-May results. In some cases, these are quite dramatic. 

Your results are likely to be consistent with these patterns.

COVID-19 thumbs/Detective copy.png

The basic definition of retailing is "selling to the ultimate consumer." 

As you know, HOW that is done, and in what location or format, continues to change and evolve. 

So, we were intrigued by this recent post on the Shopify Retail Blog: The Future of Physical Retail in a Digital-First World.*

  • The "retail digital-first world", of course, is either the "pure play e-commerce retailers," those who sell only online, or the "brands" (what we used to call manufacturers) who have embraced the "DTC model," selling direct-to-consumer. 
     
  • And as you know, Shopify is one of the largest platforms for e-commerce businesses. Definitely a leader of the retail digital-first world.

To us, the blog post was essentially a wide-ranging journey of discovery(and perhaps even some new-found respect for those "physical retailers".)