PERSPECTIVES

From The Co-Founders

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Tips, Tactics & Strategic Insights and Commentary
from The ROI Co-Founders, Pat Johnson and Dick Outcalt
Outcalt & Johnson: Retail Strategists LLC; Retail Turnaround Experts

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The constant challenge for retailers is to anticipate what their customers really want.  And this year, there seem to be plenty of choices available.

  • A "frictionless" checkout procedure? 
  • One hour delivery? 
  • Buy Now, Pay Later?
  • "This particular item in this particular color and size. Right now!?"
  • Etcetera

It is all part of the on-going challenge of retail; the art and craft of being a merchant. 

Then there are the customers who are reacting to the constant drumbeat of news about supply chain issues, merchandise shortages, and looming price increases by starting their shopping early. 

Adding to this stampede, some major chains were launching their Black Friday specials before Halloween!

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Maybe you are aware of this. We sure are!

Way too many retailers are just fumbling along, paying everybody else but not themselves.

Worse yet, way too many retailers are failing, going bankrupt, even in these "good" times for the economy. 

And when a retail business fails, it affects a host of people and entities. Not only do employees lose their jobs, and landlords lose a tenant, and suppliers lose a customer, and a community loses a retailer...the owner(s) oftentimes lose their house, car, savings, everything. 

Failure is sickening.

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For retailers there are two very strong trends happening now through the Holiday Season. And they are remarkably divergent. 

  • One that is getting a lot of publicity is how Target, WalMart, etc. are promoting their “Black Friday “ specials four weeks before Thanksgiving. 

    Sounds desperate to us, but it is a sign of the times. 

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What a scenario. Shoppers buying vigorously, retailers joyously raising sales expectations, and many more anxious lenders offering "cash in 24 hours!" to business owners.

Wow! Are these the good times, or what?

Forgive us, but today we're focusing on the "or what?" aspect.

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The season of ghosts and goblins and things that go bump in the night is upon us. While Halloween comes and goes, there may be another very unhappy monster haunting retailers this Holiday season. And it is spooky!

What is this monster? It is an unintended consequence of the good faith efforts of many retailers to provide "excellent customer service." Customer expectations have been raised to heights that may not be fulfilled this year. A grim reality is setting in. 

It has begun; the 4th quarter of the year. But sadly, Covid-19, the Delta variant, and now the Alpha variant will have huge influence. 

Meanwhile, there is no shortage of opinions and predictions about the economy, whether from Wall Street, the Fed, Capitol Hill, or your buying group or retail trade association. 

Amidst all this, we were intrigued by a report that could be of far more value to retailersresults of a monthly survey of consumer concerns.* After all, for retailers, the shopper matters much more than the pundits on the business pages.

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Just when it seems we can get to the "New Normal" or the "Next Normal," another disruption comes along. 

"There still is so much uncertainty" is the lament, often accompanied by a sigh of weariness. Or resignation. Trying to plan for the Holiday season, or looking ahead to 2022, can seem especially daunting right now.

Occasionally, all of our businesses need to hit "pause;" this is one of those times. 

Recognize that thanks to the pandemics, most everything about running your business has changed. Your merchandise mix; your customers; your staff; your competitors; your suppliers; your landlord; your technology; etcetera. Everything!

  • With all those changes, how could going forward have much resemblance to however you used to do business?
  • And as is always true in retail, the name of the game is adjusting!

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Consider this: Will this Holiday Season happen... 

  • In traditional RETAIL Time? 
  • Or always-on INTERNET Time? 
  • Or, the grinding PANDEMIC Time? 
  • Or, some combination of all of it?

What a 90 days it will be! 

Remember July and early August, when there was much optimism? 

  • Consumers were excitedly resuming in-store shopping and dining. 
  • Social gatherings were increasing. 
  • Pent up demand was high. 
  • And shoppers were eager to make this year extra special to compensate for last year.