PERSPECTIVES

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  The New Dynamics of Merchandise Mix

  The Retail Owners Institute® has developed a retail strategy for "Inventory Management Going Forward." 
  
  As we often do, it was recapped as an unassuming chart (see above) identifying the Five Stages of Merchandise Mix Management, from "Before COVID-19" to the "New Normal?"

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  Advice from Nordstrom

  "Keep your head up. 2021 is going to be great!"

  
  That message is emblazoned – in sunshine colors - in the windows of Nordstrom's flagship store in downtown Seattle. And yes, on a drizzly January day in Seattle, it was a welcome sight this morning. A nice pep talk for us all.
  
  And a fitting message to follow our reflections on the year we just experienced. 
  
  Since March 2 of 2020, our From The Co-Founders commentary has been focused on the pandemics. Revisiting those was quite the "year in review" experience.*

  • From March 2: "This is no time to overreact, nor to be dismissive. Look for the facts!"
  • And, "Our focus is on those impacts that demand the most judgment from owners."

• "On the selling floor, from 11 to 4"

  There's a lot of optimism in the air these days. 
  
  Covid-19 lockdown restrictions are being eased. More people are becoming vaccinated. Upbeat economic news is reported. Unemployment figures are improving. Restaurants are preparing for diners to return. And of course, given that we are now starting to compare sales results to the meltdowns of 2020, dramatic percentage growth is being reported and forecast for the balance of the year.
  
  These positive and optimistic news reports all are very welcome. Retailers are eager to see customers return. 
  
  But what should retailers expect? To brace yourself for the  myriad changes. 

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  From Main Street "Survivors", Vital Lessons for Urban Downtowns

  The just-released "2021's Main Street Business Survivor Study" from the Pandenomics series conducted by the PYMNTS.com folks* focuses on the "Main Street Survivors:" those small to medium sized businesses "that have weathered the pandemic's fallout." 

  Vital lessons.
  
  What have these "survivors" done differently than the rest of SMB businesses? Here are the major findings of their study. We think that you'll see many of the survival steps you have taken, or be prompted to adopt some others. 

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  What to Expect This Holiday Season...and From Whom?

  "Consumer confidence rises to five month high."

  That headline from Chain Store Age* brings smiles to retailers.
  
  Consumer confidence is a key indicator of retail sales, and this increasing confidence as we head into the holiday season is very welcome indeed. 

  • “Concerns about inflation dissipated further in September—prompted largely by declining prices at the gas pump—and are now at their lowest level since the start of the year,” according to Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.
     
  • "Looking ahead, the improvement in confidence may bode well for consumer spending in the final months of 2022," added Franco.

  But of course, there is no one-size-fits-all upside here. 

  More Spending on Necessities

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  Expecting judgment from computer forecasts? Really?

  "How are sales?" is essentially the international greeting between retailers.  And because of the seasonality of retail sales, most retailers will respond by explaining whether sales this month are up or down versus the same month last year, not just the previous month.  All this is well and fine in a normal year. But, since 2020, retailers have not been experiencing anything close to normal. And boy, does that show up in the 6-month retail sales trend charts that The ROI posts each month. In sector after sector, December, January & February sales versus the prior year are markedly different than the March-April-May results. In some cases, these are quite dramatic.  Your results are likely to be consistent with these patterns.